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As almost every professional bettor will tell you, backing heavy favourites is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. That’s common knowledge, right? Perhaps, but there’s one problem with that type of thinking: it’s dead wrong.

The received wisdom is the linesmakers skew their odds on heavy favourites because the public love betting on the best teams. The bookies no doubt see a flurry of parlays involving clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Juventus every weekend. Surely there’s value in taking the underdog in these situations, isn’t there?

In fact, numerous studies have shown that blindly backing long shots is a losing proposition in the long term. To see why that is the case, we have to understand how a bookmaker operates. Since the bookies take most of their action on short-priced favourites, it’s often assumed they are exposed to big liabilities if all the hot teams win. While this is sometimes the case, and many bookmakers suffer months of huge losses, there are several ways a bookie can protect himself.

It’s important to remember that most heavy favourites are combined in parlays involving at least three teams. A bookmaker only needs one loser to take his customer’s money. As a result, there’s little need to lower the odds on a «public» team. Many sportsbooks will even inflate the odds of a hot favourite to attract new customers, safe in the knowledge that parlay players won’t hurt their bottom line.

If the favourite’s odds are an accurate reflection of it’s true probability of winning, the bookmaker must make adjustments elsewhere. That usually means offering worse odds on the underdog and the draw. Understanding the concept of theoretical hold can make this clearer.

When creating lines, a sportsbook will offer odds on each team that give it a slight edge, ensuring a profit no matter how the game turns out. This is called the Theoretical Hold and is expressed as a percentage. It represents the combined amount of customers’ bets that the bookmaker expects to keep.

It’s called theoretical because in reality a bookmaker rarely has balanced action on all sides. If a bookie takes the bulk of his bets on a heavy favourite, he can offer it at a more generous price and accept a smaller profit margin. Short-priced favourites generally have small margins, but high volumes. Bigger odds mean bigger margins. There’s little incentive for a bookie to offer competitive odds on a big underdog if he doesn’t expect much betting interest in that team.

For evidence of this, look no further than the betting exchanges. At Betfair, for example, the theoretical hold on a soccer money line is usually 1-2%, compared with around 11% at traditional bookmakers. Because the hold is so low and the percent market is close to 100%, the exchanges represent an almost perfect market. They can give us a closer indication of the true probability of an event happening. The following table shows the odds available at several bookmakers for an upcoming match between Qatar and Argentina:

Bookmaker Qatar Draw Argentina Theoretical Hold

Betfair +1800 +660 -500 1.72%

Nordicbet +1100 +445 -500 9.10%

Bet365 +1000 +400 -500 11.05%

Interwetten +900 +400 -667 14.5%

Admiral +850 +365 -455 12.28%

Two things are immediately striking. An exchange like Betfair has significantly better odds on Qatar and the draw, which are the less probable outcomes of this game. But Betfair’s odds on Argentina, the heavy favourite, are in line with the prices offered by traditional bookmakers. In fact, even though Betfair’s market has razor thin margins, it can’t beat the odds on Argentina offered by Admiral, a bookie with a theoretical hold over 12%!

What can we learn from this? If the exchanges are a nearly perfect market, they prove that heavy favourites are fairly priced at the traditional bookmakers, but underdogs are massively underpriced and poor value. Some research has shown that backing all short priced favourites (at -500 or greater) is a profitable proposition in the long term. Now we can understand why. As a general rule, only bet on long shots at the exchanges; if you like to play favourites, stick with the traditional bookies.

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There are many popular games where people participate. Most of them are team games. However, if you take a look at the participation in Athletics, you will find a few and most of them are individual events. Yet, the amount of training and preparation that goes into it is commendable. How many people are completely aware of the events that are a part of Athletics? Most people are aware of only some of the national and international series.

Events in Athletics

The International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) has the following events listed in Athletics.

• Track Events

1. Competitive Running: This includes:

i. [Distance] Short distances referred to as the Sprints.

ii. [Distance] Middle distances

iii. [Distance] Long distances

iv. Distances in Hurdling events: This includes running with hurdles on the track.

One has to clear the hurdles successfully and reach the finish line to make it.

v. Steeplechase – Similar to the Hurdling events, except that the track here would contain hurdles as well as water jumps.

vi. [Team event] Relay – Middle Distance: Here every member has to run a specific distance, carrying a ‘baton’. Once he covers his distance, he has to hand over the baton to his other team member who starts to run his distance from there. Example: 4 x 100m Relay.

vii. [Team event] Relay – Long Distance.

2. Walking: This is another event, where people have to cover a distance by walking. There are variants like brisk walk, Race walk, etc where the speed and distances vary.

• Field Events

1. Events with Jumps: These events involve the athlete jumping for a certain target.

a. Horizontal Distance

i. Long Jump: Here the athlete attains a certain speed through a short distance sprint and then has to jump over a pit of sand covering the maximum horizontal distance possible.

ii. Triple Jump: Similar to Long Jump, except that the running is replaced with a hop and a step or a skip. This is followed by the final jump covering a good horizontal distance.

b. Vertical distance/ Height

i. High Jump: Here the athlete has to clear a hurdle along the vertical scale or he has to clear a hurdle placed at a certain height.

ii. Pole Vault: This is similar to High jump, except that, one has to clear the hurdle by jumping from the support of a long flexible pole.

2. Events with Throws: These events involve the athlete throwing a certain implement and measuring the horizontal distance of the throw.

a. Shotput

b. Discus

c. Javelin

d. Hammer

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The 21-22 February will see the 16 remaining teams in the Champions League battle it out for a place in the coveted final held on 17 May in Paris. The second round fixtures have been decided so here is a run down of who is left in the competition and their chances of progressing to the quarter finals:

Inter Milan vs Ajax

Inter qualified comfortably from Group H as winners and have a favourable match against Ajax. The Dutch side qualified as runners up of Group A without too much trouble. Inter are overwhelming favourites to qualify for the quarter finals and striker Adriano, with four goals so far in this competition, poses the main threat. Manchester City.

Verdict: Inter to qualify at 2/5.

AC Milan vs Bayern Munich

Milan stuttered through the first round, with just three wins in six matches, before eventually topping the group ahead of PSV Eindoven. Andriy Shevchenko is the tournament’s most dangerous striker with six goals. However, Bayern Munich should not be underestimated. They dumped out Arsenal at this stage last season and were only edged out by a single goal against Chelsea in the quarter finals.

Verdict: AC Milan to qualify at 4/6.

Liverpool vs Benfica

The Reds take on the team who dumped Manchester United out of the Cup and are firm favourites to progress to the quarter finals. Liverpool were unbeaten and hadn’t conceded a goal in 11 league and Cup games until Sao Paulo denied them the World Club Championship on 18 December. Benfica’s 2-1 win over Manchester United was a shock result, but one they are unlikely to reproduce. Ronald Koeman’s side are only sixth in their domestic league and are likely to see their interest in the Champions League come to an end at this stage of the competition.

Verdict: Liverpool to qualify at 4/9.

Barcelona vs Chelsea

This was the most «anticipated» draw in terms of a replay of last season’s second phase encounter. Barcelona have won 13 games straight in La Liga, while Chelsea have topped the Premiership since August, losing just one match, against Manchester United, all season. Barcelona have also been unstoppable in Europe, winning five out of the six group. Despite the unquestionable talent at his disposal, Jose Mourinho may find his Chelsea team outgunned this time around.

Verdict: Barcelona to qualify at 5/6.

Lyon vs PSV Eindoven

Lyon are a team not to be underestimated in this season’s Champions League and won their group ahead of the glamorous Real Madrid. John Carew is Lyon’s top goalscorer with four goals while Juninho has laid on three assists. PSV will have their backers but Lyon remained undefeated in the group stage and should edge this encounter.

Verdict: Lyon to qualify at 1/2.

Villarreal vs Rangers

An upset could be on the cards in this encounter with Rangers a large price to qualify ahead of Spaniards Villarreal. Under-fire Rangers boss Alex McLeish may be ridiculously off-the-pace in the Scottish Premier, but he has got it right in Europe and Rangers have become the first side north of the border to venture this far in the competition. Villarreal scored just three times in six group stage matches.

Verdict: Rangers to qualify at 5/2.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal

This is the first time the two have clashed in Champions League and the bookmakers are having difficulty separating them. The Gunners won their five opening matches in the group stage before an experimental line-up drew 0-0 with Ajax in the final round of fixtures. Real Madrid have plenty of attacking power in their line up but are suspect at the back which could be to Arsenal’s advantage.

Verdict: Arsenal to qualify at 10/11.

Juventus vs Werder Bremen

Juventus stormed through the group stage, winning five out of six matches, with David Trezeguet scoring four goals. The «Old Lady» have already beaten and lost to German opposition in the competition this season, with two 2-1 results against giants Bayern Munich in the group stage. Werder Bremen are at their best at home, demonstrated in the 5-1 demolition of Panathinaikos and 4-3 victory over Udinese.

Verdict: Juventus to qualify at 4/11.

Camisetas Southampton Información de primera mano del primer equipo de fútbol del Barça. Noticias de Piqué, Ansu Fati, Pedri y todos tus jugadores favoritos.

Summer is over. That only means one thing: the Champions League is back. This year’s joint favourites, Barcelona and Chelsea, have fast become bitter rivals in this competition. That rivalry is certain to intensify since they were drawn into the same group at this early stage of the tournament. The format is as follows: 32 teams contest the group stage, divided into eight groups of four. The group winners and runners-up advance to the knockout stages, the eight third-placed teams move into the UEFA Cup third round, and the eight fourth-placed teams are eliminated. Here is an overview of all the groups with predictions on who we expect to win each group.

Group A: Barcelona (-118), Chelsea (+125), Werder Bremen (15/1), Levski Sofia (250/1)

Maybe the Chelsea-Barcelona rivalry won’t be quite as intense at this early stage. Both teams will advance from this group and there is a good chance they will meet again at a later stage of this competition. Chelsea look noticeably shakier this year. Their previously impenetrable defence looks slightly more lax. That will bode ill for the Blues. But unlike the past few years, with two Premiership titles under their belt, this season Jose Mourinho’s explicit goal is to win the Champions League. Still, we have to side with Barcelona here. They are goal scoring machines and should demolish Bremen and Levski, and they are more than capable of scoring against Chelsea. At close to even money, they are worth backing to win this group.

Group B: Bayern Munich (+125), Inter Milan (+163), Sporting Lisbon (6/1), Spartak Moscow (40/1)

Inter is a big price here and are worth backing. They have added strength, quality and depth to their squad and after the Calciopoli scandal were belated awarded last year’s Scudetto in Serie A. Sporting Lisbon are no pushovers, but Inter can and should get past them. There is one slight worry though. Bayern Munich is the sort of team that can run up the score against weak opponents like Spartak Moscow. If Bayern and Inter are level on points, Bayern could well win this group on goal difference.

Group C: Liverpool (-161), PSV Eindhoven (+450), Bordeaux (5/1), Galatasaray (10/1)

Although they are odds-on, it’s hard to look past Liverpool in this group. They are a well-organized side and lifted the CL trophy two years ago. Manger Rafa Benitez is experienced at European competition and should navigate his team through this group with ease. PSV are a shadow of the team they were last season. There is a good chance they won’t finish in the top two of the Dutch league, let alone replicate their above average Champions League form of recent years. Bordeaux and Galatasaray are second-rate clubs in this competition.

Group D: Valencia (-125), Roma (+150), Shakhtar Donetsk (20/1), Olympiakos (29/1)

It’s hard to understand why Roma are underdogs in this group. They are favoured to win this year’s diluted Italian league. Their squad is a lot stronger this season both on paper and judging by their Serie A results so far. But the Romans face tough Spanish competition in this group. Valencia have a disciplined and experienced Champions League side. They are deadly on the counterattack and stifle the offence of their opponents. This looks like a coin flip between Roma and Valencia, so we’ll take the Italians at odds-against. Keep and eye on Olympiakos. They won’t win this group, but, like many Greek teams, they can be dangerous in their home games.

Group E: Lyon (-125), Real Madrid (+163), Steaua Bucharest (10/1), Dynamo Kiev (50/1)

The collapse of Juventus has benefited no team more than Real Madrid. The Spanish giants picked up a handful more Galacticos and one of the world’s top managers, Fabio Capello. They are serious contenders for both the La Liga and Champions League titles this year. But they will have to get past their nemesis in this tournament: Lyon. The French side are perennially underestimated by the bookmakers despite excelling in European competition. We’ll happily back them again to win this group and possibly the whole thing.

Group F: Manchester United (-275), Benfica (+650), Celtic (13/1), FC Copenhagen (50/1)

Man Utd couldn’t have asked for a more favourable draw. But luck is what they’ll need to get any further than this stage. At this short price, it’s not worth betting on the Red Devils to win the group. Copenhagen are a dangerous team, having knocked Ajax out of this competition. They are a huge price to win the group and are worth a small punt. Benfica are solid as ever in Portugal and experienced in the Champions League. They should claim second spot.

Group G: Arsenal (-161), Hamburg (9/1), Porto (9/1), CSKA Moscow (10/1)

Arsenal were the surprise team of the Champions League last year, going all the way to the final and defying expectations with each match. This year, they seem to be overestimated. The Gunners have not yet settled into their new Emirates Stadium. The squad look noticeably uncomfortable and will take more time to jell. In light of the above, it’s worth looking at the others. CSKA are a huge price at 10/1 and the 2005 UEFA Cup champions must be backed to win this group. Russia is an intimidating place for visiting teams and the Muscovites are more than capable of claiming results from their travels.

Group H: AC Milan (-333), Lille (6/1), AEK Athens (25/1), Anderlecht (33/1)

Milan should cruise through this group with relative ease. They are capable of dismantling virtually any team in the world and opponents like Lille, AEK and Anderlecht are hardly dangerous challengers. Lille are solid in France and might hold Milan to a draw in their home leg. As usual, Greek side AEK will be tough at home too, but they are hopeless on their travels. Anderlecht don’t deserve to be in this competition. Even at this short price, take Milan.

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Is the Football Profit System a scam? This is one of the latest soccer betting systems released on the internet, and it profits by taking advantage of the movement of odds in the Asian Handicap market. Although I was very skeptical about this system at first and had no idea what the Asian Handicap was and how it works, the system made me really intrigued to find out more. So does this football betting system really work or is it just another internet scam?

1. Football Profit System Review

After testing this soccer betting system for more than 2 weeks in the initial testing phase, I have managed to achieve a strike rate of a little over 94%, very close to the figures stated on its website. Overall, the system is quite easy to understand, but beginners are encouraged to read the manual more than once to fully grasp its concepts and get the confidence to apply the methods.

Football Profit System will require an average of 20 minutes per day to use, and can be used on any betting account with low levels of capital $100 and above. It can be used to make money from all major bookmakers and works with most of the major leagues around the world, including the English Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Uefa Champions League, Uefa Cup and many other competitions.

2. Profiting From The Asian Handicap Markets?

The 2 options in Asian Handicap is to either receive handicap or to give handicap. A punter who is giving handicap wins his or her bet when the 2 teams draw their game or when the underdog team wins the game.

This was an unknown market to me before, but now that I have learned to understand it using Football Profit System, I know that it is one of the most profitable markets to make money from when punted with the right strategies.

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