Mes: agosto 2022

The new sporting director Leonardo wasn’t given too much time to get his feet under the table at Paris St-Germain. The capital club have added five new players to their squad in only a week for a total cost of £30 million.

The new additions are quality players: Valenciennes centre back Milan Bisevac, Roma playmaker Jeremy Menez and St-Etienne midfielder Blaise Matuidi all arrived on Monday and were followed by Palermo goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu and Juventus spoiler Momo Sissoko.

It has been a spectacular spree which has been possible thanks to the new Middle Eastern owners: since Qatar Investment Authority have seized a controlling stake in the side two months ago, Paris St-Germain has become the joint-favourite with 2009-10 champions Marseille in the Ligue 1 Outrights Betting Market. The odds are currently as low as 3.50.

Remarkably, Paris St-Germain have claimed the title only twice in their history and last time was in 1993-94. They have been something like a sleeping giants in recent years, tough their frenetic activity in pre-season show their desperation to get rid of this tag as swiftly as possible.

Major upheavals such as this rarely provide instant success in football, where usually a transitional campaign is generally needed before a serious challenge can be mounted. They are however already on the upward curve after they have finished fourth in the last campaign. This was already the best performance in the last seven season: the gap between the best and the rest in France is far easier to bridge than in several other top leagues as proved by Lille that jumped from fourth to first in the last term.

The odds have been slashed after the summer transfer window: those who got on board earlier were able to back the triumph of Paris Saint-Germain in the 2011/12 Ligue 1 season at 10 whilst now the current price is down to 3.50. It will be a much more interesting season.

So all eyes will be on newly-rich Paris St-Germain when the French league season kick off Saturday but betting experts believe that punters should still avoid the side from the capital and put their money in two clubs with proven track records instead like Marseille and Lille. PSG has become too short in the outright market and there are too many risks involved as the team is largely new and will need time to settle.

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Everyone loves a trier, especially when it comes to putting down your readies. There’s nothing more galling for punters than to realise that your selection was ‘not off’ and that you’ve not even had a fair run for your money.

Blanket television coverage and the greater transparency of the betting exchanges have raised awareness of the ‘non-trier’ issue in horse racing, but football punters need to be on their guard too. It’s clear that all is not well in the world of football, judging by the recent match-fixing scandal in Germany involving referee Robert Hoyzer, ongoing investigations into some Italian results and irregular betting patterns on obscure European and international matches.

Thankfully, the consistency of results in the bigger leagues (and especially in England) indicates that there is no reason for lack of punter confidence. The main problem – as in horse racing – lies around the margins, in those matches (or races) not subject to the full glare of the media spotlight and where skulduggery is less likely to arouse suspicion.

All very trying

However, my research suggests the ‘non-trier’ issue does rear its ugly head towards the end of the season, even in the major leagues. Most leagues are competitive enough to ensure they go right to the wire in the battles for championships, places in Europe and safety from relegation.

But, inevitably, some teams have nothing left to play for in the final weeks of the season, which is where problems can arise.

The last few weekends of a league season feature three types of match:

1. Matches between two teams with nothing to play for.

2. Matches between two teams with something to play for.

3. Matches between one team with something to play for and one team with nothing to play for.

Out of focus

The commitment of either team cannot be taken for granted in the first category, so the most sensible betting strategy towards the end of the season is to focus on categories two and three.

Matches in the second category should be assessed using your usual techniques. (Anybody who doesn’t know needs to read our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed), but the best betting opportunities often lie in category three, where there’s always the potential for a ‘non-trier’.

This isn’t to suggest that anything underhand takes place in these games, merely that a slight drop in focus by one team can make all the difference in a competitive league such as the English Premiership.

There may be many reasons for this drop in focus – including the widely held view that some players are ‘on their holidays’ before the end of the season. It’s equally likely that, given the demands of modern football, a player who has been carrying an injury will be rested once his team has nothing left to play for, or that there may be some easing off in training sessions. Whatever the reasons, our results at the bottom of this article show a team with something to play for is more likely to win a match against a team with nothing to play for.

Across the top three English divisions and the major European leagues that we analysed (Spanish Liga, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1), these matches usually produce a win rate of 50-60% for the team with something to play for, and a win rate of 20-30% for the team with nothing to play for. The stats vary a bit from year to year and league to league, but overall are pretty consistent.

It’s a bone of some contention that such figures offer conclusive proof of the non-trier effect, but there’s one crucial piece of supporting evidence that swings the issue for me. If there was no link between the results and one team’s urgent need for points in such matches, we’d expect a higher win rate among higher-placed teams than those struggling near the bottom, since that’s what has been happening during the rest of the season. In fact, the win rate of teams battling to avoid relegation is abnormally high in such matches at the end of the season – virtually on a par with the win rate achieved by teams at the top of the table who are chasing titles, places in Europe or play-off slots.

Fight for survival

For example, the last five seasons of the English Premiership have produced a win rate of 55% for teams with something to play for. That figure does not vary, no matter whether the team is in the top six or the bottom six.

It’s a similar story in other leagues, though the win rate of relegation-threatened teams in such matches does tend to be slightly lower overall than that achieved by teams near the top of the table.

So, do these stats alone offer a good betting opportunity? The simple answer is no, but there are some refining touches that can put these figures to good advantage.

Let’s look at the overall picture first. A 55% win rate would give a tidy profit margin if the average odds available were evens, but that’s unlikely to be the case in matches where one team has something to play for and the other team doesn’t.

Taking the games that fell into this category last season in our featured leagues, a level-stakes bet on all the teams with something to play for would have brought a small loss. This was due, in part, to last season’s lower-than-average win rate by these teams, but a more significant factor is the reduced odds that punters are asked to accept on such teams.

How to beat the odds

The bookmakers generally factor in the ‘nothing to play for’ syndrome when pricing up end-of-season matches, though a few do slip through the net. If you’re good at making your own book on matches, you can spot these matches – otherwise, you will find it difficult to make a profit backing blind on the teams with something to play for.

The counter argument, of course, is that the value lies in backing against these sides, given that teams with nothing to play for will be available at artificially inflated odds in such matches. This doesn’t hold water, though, due to the lower win rate of these teams. The problem for punters, as outlined earlier, is to know whether these teams will be trying hard enough – the evidence suggests that, on the whole, they won’t be.

How, then, can we beat the odds? Well, a little more delving into the statistics puts more flesh on the general assumptions often made about end-of-season matches.

Starting at the top, the late-season records of league champions are very revealing. There’s clear evidence that, once a title has been secured arithmetically, there’s a widespread tendency for champions to take their foot off the gas. Last season, for instance, the Spanish and German champions were confirmed with two games to play – Valencia and Werder Bremen, the respective winners, then promptly lost their last two games.

This is far from an isolated example. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games, having run away with the title, though it has to be said that they had finished with four straight wins when in the same position the previous season.

Overall, however, the record of already-crowned champions suggests they’re prone to easing up once the race is won. In the leagues analysed here, the win rate of champions over the course of the season usually exceeds 60%.

Once the title has been secured, however, this dropped to an average of 57% over the past five seasons. And the fall is even more dramatic in games where they face a team with something to play for – their win rate then averages just 45%.

A ton of profit

In general, then, it’s worth opposing already-crowned champions. Last season, in the leagues featured here, this approach would have yielded a 24% profit to level stakes. If you had concentrated only on games where the opposing team still had something to play for, the strike rate in opposing the champions would have been 100% and the profit a whopping 125% to level stakes.

The only caveat is to be wary of any factor that may cause the champions to keep the pressure on – one example is Arsenal last season, when they were Premiership champions with four games to go but were keen to maintain their unbeaten record. They did so, but with only a 50% win rate in their last four games (two wins, two draws).

Another factor might be when a lower-division side is chasing a landmark such as 100 points – that was the case with Wigan Athletic in the old Division Two in 2003, when they reached three figures with two wins and a draw, even though they were already champions.

Knowing that champions ease off once they’ve nothing to play for, it’s easy to assume already-relegated sides must be even more prone to this. Again, the reality is more complicated.

Bottoming out

Overall, in the leagues analysed here, relegated teams have a 23% win rate once they’re mathematically doomed – pretty close to the average expected from relegation-zone teams over the course of the season. In other words, they don’t fall apart once all hope is gone.

In fact, relegated teams actually have a surprisingly good home record in the final weeks of the season. On average, they manage a fairly even split of wins, draws and losses at home and in none of the leagues does their number of home defeats outweigh the combined number of wins and draws – making relegated teams always worth a look on the Asian handicap at home, as they’ll rarely, if ever, be giving up a start to their opponents.

Where they perform very badly is away from home. Even more markedly, they’re usually lambs to the slaughter (home or away) versus teams still with something to play for. Their loss rate in such matches is 70% and, in the past five seasons, no relegated team recorded a single win in this type of fixture in the top leagues in France, England and Germany.

That 70% loss rate is equivalent to the odds on their opponents being around the 2/5 or 4/9 mark. The bookies are stingy about such teams, though you could still have made a profit last season backing against the relegated teams in such matches. With extra selectivity about the odds you’re prepared to take (no less than 1/2, say), the potential exists to make money on these games.

Middle-of-the-table teams is an area to tread warily. While the stats show punters generally can rely on sides scrapping for top places or battling against relegation, this isn’t the case with teams marooned in mid-table for the last few games of the season, with no incentive to move up and no fear of dropping down a few places.

The final word

In the leagues analysed here, the win rate of mid-table teams in their final games doesn’t appear too bad, averaging 33%, which is broadly in line with their overall seasonal record.

The picture isn’t so rosy, however, when the figures are narrowed down to games against teams with something still to play for. The win rate of safe mid-table teams dips to 26% and their loss rate goes up to 49% (from 41% overall).

In the end, end-of-season betting all comes down to the odds available. Pricing up these games is a difficult process, and it’s impossible to come up with hard-and-fast rules about when to bet or what odds to accept. An appreciation of the underlying stats is important, however, because end-of-season games aren’t governed by the normal rules of form and are a law unto themselves in many instances. The one golden rule is: be sure you know your selection will be trying.

More Football Betting Articles

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Submitted By Q

Dennis Publishing

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European football commands a huge fan following. These leagues are also some of the most lucrative football associations in the world. Naturally, football leagues in Europe have also some of the richest athletes in the history of sports. Here are some of those footballers that made it to the recent Forbes’ list of the wealthiest active stars in the European leagues:

1.) Ronaldino of Serie A Milan. This great Brazilian footballer is currently making at least £6 million a year with Milan. Upon coming over to Europe, he was initially offered by Barcelona a €32,250,000 transfer contract which he eventually accepted. He stayed with the Catalan club for 5 years before joining the Italian Serie A Milan.

2.) David Beckham of Los Angeles Galaxy. Known throughout the world as the husband of the former member of the famous Spice Girls Victoria Adam, David Beckam has also solidly built his own reputation as one of the top grossing football stars in Europe and America. Although he is currently playing for Los Angeles Galaxy in the US, Beckam was a key player of Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Milan before coming over of the US. As such, he is considered to be one of the richest football stars to date due to team contracts, endorsements, and other revenue sources. His value is worth over US $300,000 million.

3.) Ronaldo of the Corinthians. Like Ronaldino, Ronaldo also hails from Brazil and is considered to be one of the richest athletes in the world. He played for Milan and Real Madrid in his lengthy career, excluding his time spent on his country teams. His offer for Read Madrid was recorded to have reached €39 million. Due to injuries, he grew out of favor with Real Madrid’s manager and decided to transfer to Milan. He was acquired by Milan after an agreement of €7.5 million transfer contract.

4.) Wayne Rooney of Manchester United. Many fans and media analysts like him for his demeanor in the field, and most especially for his strong performance as a role player in the team. He formerly played for the youth team Everton but was offered by Manchester a £25.6 million transfer contract in 2004. he played well together with his other famous co-stars Cristiano Ronaldo and Paul Scholes which endeared him greatly to the fans of the club, and hence, adding to his value as a great footballer in the league. He is said to command just well below £100 million mark on his next contract.

5.) Michael Ballack of Bundesliga. This outstanding German footballer is also one of the top grossing players in Bayer Leverkusen league in Germany. He was offered a €4.1 million contract in 1999 for a transfer to his current team. Bayern Munich offered another €12.9 million. He then moves to the Premier League by joining the Chelsea in mid-2006 where he won his first English honors. He again moved back to his former team, Bayer by signing a two-year contract for an undisclosed amount.

These players are undisputed league leaders in their own right as they have the stats to prove it. Each of them has played, at one time in their career, in the Premier League. Together, they are the epitome of the best of the European football has to offer.

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American boxer Michael Gerard «Iron Mike» Tyson was born in the New York City borough Brooklyn on June 30th 1966. The ferocity and intimidating style of Tyson involved a series of rapid knockout wins that lead to his becoming the youngest heavyweight champion of the world in 1986. Ten years after Mike Tyson was born, a young Ugandan boxer Vitalis (Vitalish) Bbege, who had quickly acquired the equivalent of a national Tyson-like ferocious boxing image, was scheduled to represent Uganda at the 1976 Olympics to be held in Montreal from July 18th to 31st. Among the boxers on the Uganda team were future national boxing legends John Baker Muwanga (bantamweight) and featherweight Cornelius Boza-Edwards (Bbosa). Vitalish Bbege was scheduled to be Uganda’s welterweight competitor. Many African and other countries politically boycotted the 1976 around the starting of these Olympics. The scheduled preliminary bouts involving boycotting nations’ boxers were ruled walkovers in favor of the opponents of the non-boycotting nations.

In retrospect, Bbege had widely acquired his national brutal rapid knockout reputation during the 1974 African Amateur Boxing Championships that just so happened to be held in Bbege’s Uganda home territory. The boxing tournament took place in Kampala in November. Welterweight Bbege quickly disposed of all his opponents by early knockout, save for the audacious and strong Prince of Egypt who persistently held on until the end. Young and relatively unknown Bbege was quickly in the books as Africa’s amateur welterweight boxing champion. For decades, his name has remained legendary in Uganda and as synonymous with not only boxers, but also with belligerent and hard hitting regular people.

Bbege, as a welterweight represented Uganda at the Pre-Olympic Boxing Tournament in Montreal from November 27th to December 1st 1975. In the quarter-finals, on November 27th, the referee stopped Nico Jeurissen from Bbege’s onslaught, in the very first round. Bbege, in the semi-finals on November 29th, true to fashion, knocked out Leo Pelletier of Canada in the second round. But the finals, on December 1st, were not fruitful for Bbege. Bbege was defeated by Yoshifumi Seki of Japan with the referee stopping the fight in the first round. Bbege went home with the silver medal. And so did heavyweight Jacob Odonga, another Ugandan who was technically knocked out in the finals (by Hocine Tafer of France). The only other Ugandan contestant at this tournament was Mustapha Wasajja. He won the gold medal after outpointing Bryan Gibson of Canada.

After the 1976 Olympic boycott, Vitalish Bbege soon moved to the then West Germany (Federal Republic of Germany-FRG) where they would be more lucrative boxing opportunities for him. He remained an amateur boxer and never boxed professionally. He joined the Sparta Flensburg Boxing Club (BC Flensburg) in the city Flensburg where he still resides and is a fitness and boxing trainer.

Representing Sparta Flensburg (BC Flensburg), Bbege won numerous annual Schleswig-Holstein Amateur Boxing Association (SHABV) titles from the late 1970’s to the late 1980’s. In 1979, Bbege won the SHABV amateur middleweight (75kg) title, the same title as a light-middleweight (71 kg) in 1980 and 1981. In 1982, 1986, and 1990 Bbege became the SHABV middleweight champion. In 1984, 1985, and 1987, Bbege as a heavyweight (81kg), was the SHABV title holder.

On January 30th 1984, Vitalish Bbege represented West Germany in a boxing dual verses the United States. He boxed as a light-middleweight and defeated Michael Cross by two points to one in a three-round match-up. Interestingly Bbege has a brother who goes by the names Vitalish Nyamor Bbege and was another capable boxer who moved to Germany. Under the name Vitalish Nyamor, he also represented Germany at the same tournament and as a welterweight defeated Alton Rice by three points to zero.

John Odhiambo of Uganda and legendary Kenyan boxer David Attan are some of the other Africans that boxed in the Germany Bundesliga during the 1970’s and 1980’s. John Odhiambo, as a light-middleweight, had been scheduled to represent Uganda at the boycotted 1976 Olympics.

Vitalish Bbege and Vitalish Nyamor-Bbege, both regarded as Flensburg boxing legends, are well settled in Germany with their families. Offspring Dennis Nyamor Bbege is a boxer. Others of the Bbege descendants include Iris Bbege, Nancy Bbege, and Elvis-Aaron Bege.

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The key to winning a wager is to lay the wager correctly. In order to do this, there is a lot you need to keep track of; for example you need to be aware of the positions of the various teams in the points table, the leading players, their current form, goal difference, and most importantly how and why the odds fluctuate in a given competition. It can get tough for the average working Joe to keep track of every little factor that can potentially decide whether you hit jackpot or get disappointed. Most people are recreational punters; even the serious bettors do so because of the pleasure that the activity provides.

Granted, winning is a big high but if preparing for a win is like you were going to give an entrance exam, then it can be a bit of a spoiler. This is where soccer tipster services come in. Soccer tipster services are provided by online betting sites and gambling portals. You can visit these sites to gather tips on whom to bet on and whom to give a wide berth. It’s a great way to gain information on what others feel about a team or a player and the best part is that these tips are free. Of course, there are bound to be differences in opinion and the weight given by different tipsters to different teams will vary; however even this has a positive, you can gather tips and arrive at your own conclusion based on them. Over a period of time, this practice of reading tips and co-relating them to the reality of the game can develop into a useful skill that will stand you in good stead as you progress and grow as a skillful punter.

The manner in which the tips are arrived at is both objective and subjective; skilled tipsters offer their tips based on their observations and at the same time the websites use complex algorithms to arrive at a tip. These algorithms factor in various aspects such as the current form of a team, goals scored – for and against, leading players, etc. More weight is accorded to an away win as against a home win. The tremendous amount of historical data available also makes it possible to draw trends and forecast based on them by making use of statistical tools.

If you fancy yourself as a punter you too can try your hand at providing tips. Your tips will be published at an online betting site or you can even set up your own site. You could stand to make some good money, especially if you have access to insider information and you can offer insider tips. As more and more people benefit from your tips, they will frequent your website more regularly; which can lead to advertising revenue. So whether you’re a Bundesliga fan or your follow the English Premier League, you can beat the bookmaker and make the most of your bets, all you need to do is to make good use of the soccer tipster services provided online and at the same time use some of your own understanding of the game.

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