Mes: agosto 2022

Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payoffs for match favorites. The accuracy of these predictions can be analyzed by comparing between the betting odds and the real outcome of soccer matches.

This article compares between the accuracy of the soccer predictions made by bookmakers during 2008/09 and the first half of 2009/10. The comparison is based on the average betting odds from the top European soccer leagues.

Data and methods

To compare the accuracy of the bookmakers’ predictions, the authors of this article analyzed the match outcomes and average betting odds of the following 10 major European soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier League, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.

The outcome of a match was estimated on the basis of the average payoff offered by the bookmakers for that match. The possible profit of a bettor who bets on bookies’ favorites was calculated according to the average betting odds.

Summary

The conclusion was that the bookmakers successfully predicted the outcome of more than 54% of matches during the seasons 2008/09 and 2009/10. Thus, the average accuracy of bookmakers’ soccer predictions is relatively high in the case of major European leagues. Nonetheless, the low profits make these predictions highly unprofitable as betting tips.

1×2 betting:

— Losses of -4% and -2% respectively were estimated for bettors, who used fixed odds as betting tips.

— The only profitable league during those two seasons was Austrian Bundesliga (+14% and +6% of profit) with more than 60% of correct match predictions.

— The most unprofitable leagues were Scottish Premier (-22% and -6%) and German Bundesliga (-11% and -6%).

— The most drastic improvement in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Dutch Eredivisie league where the profit changed from -11% to +8%.

— The most drastic degradation in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Turkish Super Lig league where the profit changed from +4% to -18%.

Total under/over bets are the most unprofitable:

— Total under/over 2.5 losses were nearly the same during both seasons and equal to 10%.

The conclusion is that using bookmakers’ soccer predictions as betting tips does not pay off in daily betting. Though the accuracy of their predictions is high, their odds do not result in betting profits.

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German Premier League or Bundesliga has many high-profile football clubs competing in it for the title. There is no doubt that Bayern Munich has been enjoying its monopoly in Bundesliga for quite a few seasons. It is one of the most popular international football clubs. Needless to say, Bayern’s growing popularity has led the fans all over the globe to gather several important pieces of information and facts about the club. Here are a few Bayern Munich facts that the fans are less likely to like giving a miss to.

· The club’s full name is FC Bayern Munchen AG. It was established in 1900. That means the club is a 100-year old entity. It is one of the oldest and most prestigious clubs in Europe.

· Franz Beckenbauer, one of the best footballers in the world, was once the chairman of the club. The football legend later went on to become an advisor to this club. His contribution helped the club a lot to gain an envious position that it is still enjoying.

· FC Bayern Munich is, by far, the most dominating team in Bundesliga and has won the title more than 20 times till date. Not only has the club been most popular in the German League but has also made an impressive name for itself internationally.

· Allianz Arena is the home ground of the club and can host about 70,000 football lovers. Needless to say, the club receives the warmest reception on their home turf and has won a number of memorable matches there.

· The first ever title won by this club was in 1909 in the Bavarian Championship and since then, they have never looked back.

· Bayern Munich was initially started by the Munich Gymnastic club.

· The club lifted their first ever European Championship cup by defeating Atletico Madrid with a 4-0 score and managed to defend their title for three years in a row. The team has similar credits of defending their «Champion» status in other leagues as well.

· The club is run much like a standard company, with 90% of its shares being owned by the club and remaining 10% by Adidas. BM is one of the most profitable international football clubs.

· It is one of the very few clubs to have won the European cup, the UEFA Cup and the Cup Winners Cup.

· Oliver Kahn set a record of keeping clean sheets for maximum number of times in 2001-2002. However, BM goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer has smashed the record by maintaining 20 clean sheets. Players from this club have been nominated for the Ballon D’Or 15 times till date and won it 5 times.

· The 2014-2015 Bundesliga season saw Bayern win the Championship title for the fourth year in a row.

· Seven Bayern players played for Germany in the FIFA World Cup hosted by Brazil. Germany had an impressive run throughout the campaign and won the World Cup for the fifth time.

· FC Bayern Munich has made it to the DFB Cup semifinals for eight times straight.

Golden goals intend to scoop out details about the most celebrity clubs in Europe to keep adding to knowledge of their fans. Keep reading the website and its blog to stay updated on football news.

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In a gathering of football enthusiast, discussing and debating over football issues; some relevant and some others irrelevant. A few about individual players and others about teams with great exploits, teams that have defiled all odds to achieve extra ordinary success, the debate got hotter, and the tempo was raised, then propped up this topic; «Who is the best striker in Europe»?

Silence there was, each sinking into himself. It was a topic that made me ponder, but there is another side to this controversy; what really makes a striker? What are the qualities of a striker? How do we distinguish strikers from strikers?

Pondering over the interesting topic, ideas sprung up; views of mine came alive. The fundamental question as stated above needed urgent answers to put the debate to rest. First, who is a striker? A striker is a front man in team football, whom the whole team look up to produce goals, that will bring victory, he’s that man who bangs the net with goals

Let’s review what really makes a striker?

Some of the qualities, which I can deduce of a competent striker, are: height, speed, skills, strength, wits, calculation and the ability to tear apart opposing defenses single-handedly and most important of all, good finishing.

The rave making strikers in Europe presently, do possess some, if not all, of the above-mentioned qualities of a striker. Possessing of all the above-mentioned qualities makes a striker formidable. The greatest strikers in the footballing history possess all the qualities; the likes of Delima Ronaldo, The great Pele, Roberto Baggio, Romario, etc. which made them famous and deadly during their peak years, in the days of old.

Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba, Fernando Torres, Lionel Messi, Samuel Eto’o, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diego Milito, Gonzalo Higuain, and the likes, are all proven goal scorers, who will bury any chance they get and will punish any defensive line up.

Analyzing each of the a fore-mentioned players, will bring to the fore the fact that all these are formidable strikers, who score on a regular basis. England has always being blessed with intelligent and proven strikers at different points in time. There was a time it was Andy Cole, one of the best players that ever wore the red and white England jersey, the first player in the history of Premier League to net five goals in a single match, amazing isn’t it? Well his time is past now, but really he mesmerized fans of the then EPL with his exceptional skills and goal scoring prowess.

There was Alan shearer, what do I have to say about this exceptionally good striker? He equaled Andy Cole’s record of five goals in a single match; he scored goals from different angles of the pitch, from different match situations: set pieces, counter-attack, open play and from even unlikely and remote angle of the pitch, as a result of his forceful style of play, some section s of the fans were not friendly with him, same made him one of the most-feared during his time in the Premier League. Although he has not been successful as a manager, failing to save Newcastle UTD from the relegation troubles, which caused its fall.

The English Footballing world woke to the 2009/2010 season to experience something different, an experience of goal banging, an all-round action experience; The Wayne Rooney Experience. Wayne Rooney as a player has grown to be very matured and confident. Watching the Rooney of five seasons ago in comparison to this season’s, one would clearly notice the improvement in his style of play, his conduct on the pitch, team coordinating brilliance and the likes. All these improvements in Wayne Rooney have made him to be a very formidable and fearful striker in the world football. One of the talents which Rooney possess that endeared him to me and the football fans in general, is his ability to terrorize opposing defenses single-handedly with sheer brilliance. Rooney has scored 38 goals so far this season, and most of them have through his individual brilliance, although with the help of team mates, who have mastered his play in recent games.

Team work is another of his talent which he puts on display in each match, he with his powerful and brilliant, has been able to foster unity in the team in terms of field play, he distributes accurate passes, he doesn’t hold on to the ball meaninglessly, positions himself in the best possible position to be spotted for pass release which on a good day results to goal.

Away from England, and unto the European scene, there is this player, who some have wrongly compared to a great football legend, the player who single-handedly destroy opposing teams, not only with his goals, but also with his passes, dribbles, speed, strength and all the rest.

The player, who is the current World Player of the Year, the most dangerous player on the planet presently; Lionel Messi! Some regard him as the «merciless», some others say he’s the greatest player to walk the earth surface, but I strongly disagree to this notion. You run out of adjectives trying to describe him, no doubt he’s a good player, proven goal-scorer, intelligent destroyer of opposing teams and worst of all he causes night mare to defenders, especially in the Spanish La Liga and also the Champions League, the two competitions which he plays his best football.

The «merciless» truly shows no mercy to teams and players that stands on his way to victory. He has scored 40 goals this season; his finishing and goal build-up play clearly spells out his superiority in Europe. He is being criticized for not excelling in big games with high expectation from him; he silenced his critics against Arsenal, after his well taken four goals to send Arsenal crashing out of Europe’s elite club competition.

Resting the debate, I’ll say strikers should be rated with different stats, the inability of a striker to score plenty goals does not mean he’s not a good striker. Fernando Torres is a brilliant striker, but he has not been able to score lots of goals doesn’t mean he’s not a complete striker. A complete striker is one who scores goals, has the ability to turn the game around with individual skill, spaces himself in the right positions to be given the ball and buries it at the back of the net. A striker is a playmaker.

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Real Madrid president, Ramon Calderon announced that his newly signed Italian centre-back Fabio Cannavaro had won the prestigious Ballon D’Or, or Golden Ball, and was to replace Ronaldinho as the European Footballer of the year. This came to the surprise of many and rose more than a few eyebrows. Not, through the fact that Cannavaro had been the selection, far from it given his dominant displays during the World Cup, but due to the fact that the winner of the much hyped award is not actually announced until 27th November. Surely this means one of two things. The first of these is that France Football, the magazine that actually host the prize, have a mole in the camp and need to seriously bolster their security, alternatively Senor Calderon is living up to the traditions of the Madridistas and filling newspaper columns with self gratifying propaganda.

If it was a media frenzy that Calderon wanted, then he will be a happy man. Italian newspapers were not slow in announcing: «Cannavaro, it’s all true.» (Gazzetta dello Sport) and: «Golden Ball to Cannavaro.» (Corriere della Sera). Despite the excitable nature of the Italian media, it would appear that the issue is done and dusted. Which would change the purpose of this article from a preview of the front-runners, to a selection of the nearly men. However, the famous trophy is not yet causing the Italian skipper feng shui difficulties at chez Cannavaro and so I will continue with my initial intentions.

The Ballon D’Or was created in 1956 by France Football magazine. At a time when Europe had begun to come out from the hangover of World War II a decade earlier, and football was enjoying its progression as a worldwide game. The inaugural European Cup (now known as the UEFA Champions League) was played out in the same year, and Stanley Matthews, the Blackpool winger was pronounced as Europe’s first Player of the Year. In the years that followed, the awards were dominated by the all conquering Madrid side, their forward Alfredo di Stefano claiming the title twice. The very idea of the award showed that football was now a sport that could bring people of different countries together, such an important factor when we consider that much of the continent had been a battlefield little over a decade before. Despite being held by France’s leading football publication, the award is based upon the considered opinion of journalists Europe-wide.

The award has been pretty evenly distributed around the leading lights of European club football over the years, Juventus lead the way with a total of eight winners (a total that could well have been further extended had the Calciopoli match fixing scandal not intervened), AC Milan (seven), Barcelona (six), Real Madrid (five) and Bayern Munich (five) all follow. Of course we must take into consideration that the award ceremony is traditionally held in November of every year, so many victorious players may well have been at new clubs at the time of the award, having earned the plaudits that lead to the prize at another side (both Luis Figo and Ronaldo are examples of this, having only moved to Madrid a few months prior to the presentation). The only major change in the award since it began came in 1995 when it was decreed that the winner need not be European in nationality himself, merely have his contract held by a club that comes under UEFA’s jurisdiction (much to the delight of the Liberian forward George Weah who took full advantage of the rule change in 1995).

An obvious start point for such an award would be to begin where we left off last year. The Brazilian Ronaldinho, who won last years award (to sit proudly on the mantelpiece next to his World Player of the Year award) to reconfirm him as being regarded as the planet’s finest player. The Barcelona man, by his very high standards, had a disappointing year. Despite adding the Champions League to his collection of medals, he was relatively below par in the World Cup (a competition that usually can be considered the deciding factor for the award) as his Brazilian side (and pre-tournament favourites) limped out in the quarter finals having been widely tipped to take a sixth title. Of his compatriots, only really Kaka’ shone in Germany and unfortunately the AC Milan forward ended the season medal-less despite enhancing his growing reputation as a force to be reckoned with in world football, and possible future winner of the award.

As we have previously examined, major tournaments often have a large impact on who is to be the recipient of the award. Take, for example, Ronaldo’s Ballon D’Or of 2002. Following yet another injury plagued season in Italy with Internazionale, el phenominon (as he is known by his adoring fans) turned it on in the Far East to help Brazil claim a fifth World Cup, scoring an incredible eight goals along the way and exorcised the some of the demons of his breakdown in the 1998 competition. Although many commented that surely seven games does not make a season, Ronaldo, who had since joined the Galacticos of Madrid, took the coveted prize.

From this theory, we can assume that this year’s victor will most likely hail from Italy. As previously mentioned, all of this talk is fairly irrelevant as Fabio Cannavaro has been, although as yet unconfirmed, declared by his club’s president as the winner. In reality, should this be the case, few could argue. The Italian captain was a lion in the heart of the formidable Italian defence that provoked headlines of ‘campione del mondo’ (‘champions of the world’) across the Mediterranean peninsula. However, the 33 year old former Juventus man is himself not getting as excited as his President (at least not before the famous ‘fat lady’ has had her moment). Cannavaro has said: «Of course I would like to win it. It would be wonderful and very gratifying on a personal level.»

As well as the Madrid man, Italy can boast strong claims for the award through both midfielder Andrea Pirlo and goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon. Pirlo, during the previous season with Milan, and the World Cup with his nation, enhanced the reputation that he had, in his early career at least, threatened without ever achieving. Some superb displays in the heart of the Azzuri’s midfield raised Pirlo’s profile to be rated amongst the continent’s finest in his position, although lack of success on the domestic front may have cost him. More interesting though, is the calls for the award to be given to Gigi Buffon. The Juventus and Italy stopper has long been regarded as the finest in the World in his position. In Germany, Buffon further embellished this claim. Some heroic performances, most notably in the semi final against the hosts and his penalty saving performance to claim the trophy in the final, gave credence to him becoming only the second goalkeeper to win the award. In claiming the Ballon D’Or he would truly claim a place amongst the greats as the only other ‘number one’ to have won the award was the Russian Lev Yashin in 1963. He also has the support of Italy legend, and former European Footballer of the Year, Gianni Rivera. Upon hearing of Cannavaro’s premature victory, Rivera proclaimed: «I would have chosen Italy keeper Gianluigi Buffon but if it is true that Fabio is to win it, I’m happy anyway.»

If the Golden Ball is to head to Italy, it will be the country’s forth winner after Rivera himself (1969), Paolo Rossi (1982) and Roberto Baggio (1993).

However, not all are in agreement that the award should be given to an Italian. Upon hearing Ramon Calderon’s claims, Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger reacted in typically defiant fashion: «Congratulations to Cannavaro if that’s the case,» Wenger said Friday. «But for me there’s only one candidate this year, it’s Thierry Henry. He just deserves it.

In retrospect, this is a fair argument. Henry appeared in both of the showpiece events in world football during 2006, and despite being on the losing side in both the World Cup and Champions League finals, getting to both is a testament to the man. Henry is widely regarded to have been the best striker in world football of the past few seasons. Consistently the English Premiership’s leading marksman and considered amongst the finest ever to have graced these shores, so perhaps, for once, Mr Wenger has seen something, he went onto say: «What does he have to do? Just to keep going. Sometimes you get rewarded at the moment where you expect it the least. That’s as well the sign of a superchamp.»

Other possible contenders are pretty thin on the ground. Samuel Eto’o of Barcelona was at his explosive best helping propel his side to titles in both La Liga and the Champions League, although not appearing in the summer’s festival of football due to Cameroon’s failure to qualify did not help his cause, as neither did the long term knee injury that will keep the striker out of action until the new year. The Portuguese midfielder Deco is another who has been mentioned in relation to the award. The diminutive string puller was considered to have been as, if not more, vital than Ronaldinho to Barcelona’s success last term. Another option, and one for the romantics, would be if the award was to go to Zinedine Zidane. The mercurial Frenchman finally hung up his golden boots during the summer after dragging his nation to the final. Some imposing performances from the one di Stefano dubbed ‘the maestro’ won Zizou the World Cup Golden Ball for being the tournament’s most outstanding player. However, we all know how it ended and, head-butts aside, the play-maker had a relatively poor season with Real Madrid.

With all considered, I feel I am largely discussing the competitors in a race already won. From a personal perspective I find this somewhat disappointing as it appears to be the closest competition for the award for some time. Not that I do not perceive Cannavaro a worthy winner, we have to go all the way back to Franz Beckenbauer in 1976 to find our last defender to have won the prize in a roll-of-honour dominated by players more accustomed to creating and scoring goals rather than stopping them. In this similar vein it would appear that given our three perceived favourites of Cannavaro, Buffon and Henry, only one is a striker. Perhaps a reflection upon the changing face of football? Perhaps merely a reflection of an Italian World Cup win? Either way, for me it is sad that such a prestigious award may not be announced with all of the pomp and ceremony that the eventual winner would undoubtedly deserve.

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The English Premier League (EPL) is a top flight league for association football teams, in England. The League is run as a corporation of which the 20 member clubs are shareholders.

Every season, matches start in August and go on till May the next year. Each team plays every other team, once at its home venue and once away, thereby playing 38 matches in all, which translates into 380 matches played mainly on weekends, with occasional week day matches.

The League is sponsored by Barclays Bank, and is officially known as the Barclays Premier League.

The 80’s marked a low point in English football, when the football infrastructure began to crumble, English players’ standards fell, as compared to those of European players, and football hooliganism became rife.

The lowest point was reached when English football teams were banned for 5 years from 1985. Things took a turn for the better when England performed well at the 1990 World Cup, reaching the Semifinals. Also, after the Hayworth tragedy, a decision was made to improve the infrastructure of stadia across Britain.

The EPL was formed in 1992 by teams that decided to break away from the Football League, founded in 1888. Their chief incentive was a television rights deal. They would also be free to negotiate their own sponsorship agreements.

However, the television rights are sold collectively. From 1996-97 onwards, the tournament has been dominated by the big four, namely, Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Manchester united have never featured outside the top three, in any Premiership season.

This is the story of one of the world’s richest Football Leagues, with the combined revenues exceeding 3 billion dollars, per annum. It is also the highest rated league in Europe by UEFA, ahead of Spain’s La Liga and Italy’s Serie A.

Since 1888, 23 teams have won the football league. The EPL which has completed 18 seasons has had 4 winners. Manchester United has won it 11 times, Arsenal and Chelsea, 3 times each, and Blackburn Rovers, once.

Once the EPL came into existence, the relationship between the Premier League and the Football league was exactly simlar to that between first and second division footbal in the previous era.

Initially there were 22 teams. This was reduced to 20 in 1995 when four teams got relegated and only 2 teams were promoted from the Football League (now called the Championship League).

Thereafter FIFA wanted all European leagues to have no more than 18 teams, a move that has been resisted by the EPL.

Of the 20 teams that take part in a EPL season, the bottom three are relegated and replaced the next year by the top three teams in the Champions League, (the finalists and the winners of the third place play off).

The top four teams of the EPL qualify for the UEFA Champions League, with the top three directly entering the group stage.

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